Changing climatic conditions could pose a severe threat to forest tree species, which may be forced to adapt to new conditions or shift their ranges to more favorable environments. On-site adaptation, range-shift, and population extirpation all could have negative genetic consequences.

The maps in this atlas forecast future suitable habitat for North American forest tree species under two climate change models, and predict the parts of tree ranges that will be under the greatest climate change pressure. They have been generated using the multivariate spatio-temporal clustering (MSTC) technique.

These maps are being used to assess the risk posed by climate change to the genetic integrity of North American forest tree populations. An additional objective is to make these maps available to scientists and policymakers attempting to determine which species and populations should be targeted for monitoring efforts, conservation actions, and genetic diversity studies.


This work is the result of cooperation between the USDA Forest Service Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center and the North Carolina State University Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, supported by funding from the USDA Forest Service Forest Health Monitoring Program.